To the rest of the world, United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who is third in line for the presidential succession ignored President Biden’s plea to abort her planned Taiwan trip. But a careful analysis may suggest otherwise.
A careful 360 consideration of global events and a thorough understanding of the United States foreign policy posture in the current Biden administration suggest that the public disagreement between Biden and Pelosi is all a gimmick.
First, the similarities between Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan cannot be overlooked. Both Russia and China have expressly anti-democratic regimes. Conversely, positioned in close proximity to both countries are Ukraine and Taiwan both democratic countries which want nothing to do with the superpower next door.
Both Russia and China aspire to claim the democratic smaller countries next to them as within their territorial influence even if those countries insist on their independence and aspire closer relations to the united States to the chagrin of the superpower next door.
Russia made the move to invade Ukraine and has been locked in a protracted war without the United States lifting a visible finger to get directly involved.
The Biden administration would want to make certain that it would not walk away and abandon Taiwan, and what better way to make that statement than to have a surrogate make a high profile trip to Taiwan while pretending in public to be against the trip?
Asked what he thought of Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, Biden said “the military thinks it’s not a good idea.” Note that he dodged that question.
After four years of Trump sending mixed signals to America’s allies around the globe about support for them, Biden came in determined to re-establish relations with those allies. And thus far everything he has done is designed to pursue that goal.
He even abandoned the long-held “strategic ambiguity” policy of the United States towards Taiwan and went as far as to state on his Asia trip that the United States would defend the island in the event of a China invasion.
How does Biden make such a bold statement and then shy away from threats from China? Pelosi and Biden are both Democrats, and the former would not do anything to hurt the latter’s foreign policy goals. As a result, does anyone believe that Biden could not have leaned on Pelosi to abort the trip if he seriously wanted her not to go?
Biden and Pelosi are counting on Xi Jingpin being smart enough to see the trouble that Putin has gotten himself into and would not want to get himself also embroiled in a never-ending war as he deals with an obstinate corona virus that is still sunning wild in China.
In the end, it is suspected that Biden called Xi Jingpin’s bluff, and secretly nudged Pelosi to proceed with the trip to Taiwan. Jingpin would end up not escalating the tension any higher than he has at this point because after all, what is a trip to Taiwan by the number three person in America?
Note: DNT has no background information for this analysis.
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