Two-thirds of England ‘will be in Tier 4 after tomorrow’s shake-up’

 Boris Johnson will meet with senior ministers this evening to decide on the Government‘s latest coronavirus tiers shake-up.

The Prime Minister will chair a meeting of the so-called Covid-O committee, with Health Secretary Matt Hancock then due to announce the decisions to the House of Commons tomorrow afternoon.

The meeting comes amid claims that two-thirds of England, including parts of the Midlands and the North, could be forced to live under the toughest Tier 4 restrictions following the review.

Millions more people are expected to face the harshest stay-at-home orders as the Government responds to the spread of a mutant coronavirus strain thought to be at least 50 per cent more infectious than the original.

Covid hospital admissions are rising in every region, with NHS units in England now treating more patients than they were in the first wave. And Covid infections are continuing to soar, with a record-high of 41,385 announced yesterday.

There are growing fears England could be plunged into ‘Tier Five’ restrictions within days in a desperate attempt to stop the spread of the new variant of the virus.

Scientists guiding the Government through the pandemic are understood to have advised Mr Johnson to impose tougher measures than those rolled out in November’s lockdown.

One of Number 10’s scientific advisers today warned England must be plunged into a third national shutdown to prevent a ‘catastrophe’ in the New Year.

Professor Andrew Hayward, an epidemiologist at University College London and member of SAGE, warned the country is entering a ‘very dangerous new phase of the pandemic’.

He called for ministers to ‘learn the lessons’ of earlier waves, when the Government was criticised for being too slow to lockdown, and to act early this time.

Around 24million people living in London, the South East and the East of England are already under the harshest Tier 4 curbs.

But more regions and local authorities are feared to be set to join them after Number 10’s leading scientists admitted they cannot stop the spread of the highly-contagious mutation that officials believe is to blame for rapidly spiralling cases.

‘I would expect more than half of England to move into Tier 4, but it wouldn’t surprise me if two thirds end up in the top tier,’ a health official told the publication.

‘There is also real concern about the South African variant which seems to be spreading fast.

‘Unfortunately, more action is needed to combat rising cases across the board.’

Covid-19 hospitalisations are already rising in every region.

The biggest surge over the last seven days was in London, where the mutant strain of the virus is already thought to have taken hold.

The number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients jumped 44 per cent from 1,551.6 to 2,236.7 over the past seven days.

The second highest jump was in the East of England, where they rose 43.9 per cent from 1,118.6 to 1,610.4.

And the third highest was in the South East, where they rose by 27.8 per cent from 1,579.1 to 2,018.

In England overall the number of Covid-19 patients in hospital rose by 16.6 per cent, from 11,685.3 to 13,623.9.

In the South West they rose by 11.4 per cent, from 803.3 to 894.9, in the Midlands by 5.6 per cent, from 2,489.6 to 2,630.6, in the North East and Yorkshire by 2.7 per cent, from 2,131.3 to 2,188.1, and in the North West by 1.6 per cent, from 2,011.9 to 2,044.9.

Calling on the Government to take swift action to curb the spread of the virus, Professor Hayward said this morning: ‘I think we are entering a very dangerous new phase of the pandemic and we’re going to need decisive, early, national action to prevent a catastrophe in January and February.

‘A 50 per cent increase in transmissibility means that the previous levels of restrictions that worked before won’t work now, and so Tier 4 restrictions are likely to be necessary or even higher than that.

‘I think we’re really looking at a situation where we’re moving into near lockdown, but we’ve got to learn the lessons from the first lockdown.’

Professor Hayward said the rise in cases was ‘very largely driven’ by the new, more infectious variant of coronavirus, and suggested that allowing pupils to return to schools would mean stricter restrictions in other areas of society.

Responding to Professor Hayward’s comments, the Prime Minister’s Official Spokesman said: ‘I would point back to what we have done throughout the pandemic where we have taken action based on the latest scientific and medical evidence.

‘You have seen us do that throughout December when we have moved areas into Tier 4 exactly for the reason to reduce the transmission of the virus and to try and reduce the R rate of the virus in the areas where prevalence is high.

‘As I said, we obviously keep measures under constant review and we obviously keep the latest scientific and medical data under constant review as well.’

The Government has not ruled out tougher new ‘Tier 5’ restrictions, which could see schools and universities close, or the prospect of a new national lockdown in January.

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove yesterday failed to dismiss the idea of putting the entire country in Tier 4.

He said: ‘We review which tiers parts of the country should be in on the basis of scientific evidence.

‘The Joint Biosecurity Centre will be making a recommendation to ministers, but I can’t pre-empt that because it obviously has to be a judgment based on the medical situation. The NHS is under pressure and these are difficult months ahead.’

The data suggests Cumbria could be the next area to be plunged into Tier Four tomorrow.

Three of the Tier 2 county’s six boroughs seeing their Covid infection rate – the number of new cases per 100,000 people – double in size during the week ending December 22.

Department of Health statistics show Eden, home to around 50,000 people, had a rate of 422.5 during the most recent week data is available for – up from 200.9 in the previous seven-day spell. It stood at 41.3 at the start of the month.

It means the borough, which includes Penrith, recorded more confirmed Covid cases for the size of its population than several councils already placed under Tier Four, including parts of Surrey, Berkshire and Oxfordshire.

Allerdale (163.7) and Copeland (64.5) also saw outbreaks double in size over the same time-frame. However, the latter Cumbrian borough still has England’s lowest coronavirus infection rate.

And Barrow-in-Furness – another part of the county – was one of just 27 areas that recorded fewer cases week-on-week. England’s 288 other boroughs saw their outbreaks stay stable or grow, with 35 authorities seeing infections double over the same duration.

Local health bosses fear the rapid growth in cases across parts of the county, which borders Scotland, is being driven by the same coronavirus mutation that spread rapidly across the Home Counties.

Boris Johnson promised the tier allocation would be based on ‘common sense’, with the JBC – a Whitehall body that decides the whack-a-mole strategy – using a set of five criteria to decide which areas need the harshest restrictions.

This includes the overall infection rate for each area, the number of cases in the over-60s, and the speed at which the outbreak is growing or shrinking.

Officials also look at the test positivity rate – the number of confirmed infections for every 100 tests taken – and the pressure on local hospitals.